2024年经济和市场展望
二零二三年十一月二十一日
我们正处在一个高度复杂和动态的世界中, 强调了全球经济的脆弱性. 投资者需要清晰而敏捷地做出回应.
2023 will likely go down in economic history books as the year of economic resilience. 事实上, 尽管高利率给经济增长带来了诸多阻力, 银行贷款标准收紧和制造业放缓, 全球经济继续以合理速度增长.
收入的强劲增长支撑了消费, 被压抑的储蓄的减少和通货膨胀的蔓延. In some regions we also saw a pick-up in private sector investment as well as large fiscal stimulus measures. 与此同时，全球制造业举步维艰, the services sector boomed as it benefited from post-pandemic demand shift from goods to services.
全球经济增长并非千篇一律, with the US a standout outperformer while the Chinese economy struggled to gather pace. 随着我们进入2024年, we expect the US and other overheated economies to cool as recent supporting factors fade or roll off completely:
The 2024年经济和市场展望 examines the above perspective on growth along with other key considerations around inflation, 央行政策, systemic 风险s and the state of individual markets as indicators of the year ahead.
Download the report to see the full outlook from our macroeconomic and dynamic asset allocation team.
我们认为政策制定者将在2024年和2025年基本实现他们的目标, and we will let historians decide whether this was by luck or good judgement. 我们认为劳动力市场, wage growth and inflation will return to somewhere near normal levels as a period of policy-induced weak growth rebalances labour markets and economies as a whole.
全球经济和动态资产配置主管
2024年投资者应该考虑什么?
在美国，这一数字达到了2美元.峰值时为7万亿美元，现在接近1美元.截至2023年9月底，这一数字为1万亿美元. 然而, 储蓄不是无限的，以目前的储蓄速度来看, consumers will likely run out of their spending reserves over the coming quarters.
\n"}}' id="text-9942d306cc">2023 consumption was supported by the use of savings that people accumulated during the Covid-19 pandemic. 面对更高的98858威尼斯70570成本, higher cost of refinancing a mortgage or even a jump in prices for going on a sunny vacation, 消费者能够利用过剩的储蓄.
在美国，这一数字达到了2美元.峰值时为7万亿美元，现在接近1美元.截至2023年9月底，这一数字为1万亿美元. 然而, 储蓄不是无限的，以目前的储蓄速度来看, consumers will likely run out of their spending reserves over the coming quarters.
2023年的支持性财政政策不太可能持续下去. One of the less talked about yet powerful drivers of economic activity in 2023 has been fiscal stimulus.
在美国, numerous policy measures such as the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS Act have led to increased spending at a time when tax receipts were low (low corporate tax collection because of falling profits in 2022 and low capital gains tax collection because of poor asset performance in 2022).
这意味着美国政府在2023年将出现巨额财政赤字, 比2022年大得多. We expect 2024 fiscal deficit to be smaller than 2023 which means fiscal policy will become contractionary, 拖累经济活动.
The services sector was very strong in 2023 driven by a return to normality. 人们不再购买健身器材，而是回到健身房. Instead of renovating the kitchen, people returned to eating in restaurants and going on holidays.
随着2023年底的临近, the services sector is appearing to lose some steam as the post pandemic boom for service consumption fades and as service prices have become somewhat stretched. 我们预计这种情况将在2024年继续下去.
In the mid-summer of 2022, European natural gas prices were at €339 and oil prices were at $120. One-year later, these prices have dropped significantly, creating an assist to consumers’ budgets.
A roll-over in supply chain constrained goods categories such a secondhand cars had a similar effect. 虽然这些助攻很强大，但我们相信这些助攻不会在2024年重演.
2024年经济和市场展望
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